Selway prognostication

Amongst our group of boaters going on the Selway this July, there has been alternate talk of either there being too much water, or a low (but doable) flow. Early on, there were those who thought the water was going to be too high (7-8' on the Paradise gauge). I thought it would drop to an easy level by our launch date, but there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Then as the weather started to warm up, all talk of the water being too high was silenced, and folk began talking as if it would be a low water float. This was fueled by the NOAA forecasters who seem to think no amount of water in the present will keep the Selway from regressing to it's mean in more than a week's time.

So now we have a little pool going regarding the flow on our launch date (July 6th). I'm still betting higher than the rest: 4.2 feet on the Paradise gauge at 1pm on July 6th. Even a couple of days ago the NOAA forecast was reading as if it was going to be down under 3 feet (Paradise converted). Now if you follow the link above, the forecasters are saying even I might be a little low. Personally, I think they need to find a better logarithm for their long (medium?) range forecasts. (Oops! That was supposed to be "algorithm")

This is the conversion table for the Selway between the Lowell gauge and the off-line Paradise gauge:

37,800 cfs at Lowell = 10' at Paradise.
30,900 cfs at Lowell = 9' at Paradise.
26,400 cfs at Lowell = 8' at Paradise.
22,000 cfs at Lowell = 7' at Paradise.
20,000 cfs at Lowell = 6' at Paradise.
16,300 cfs.at Lowell = 5' at Paradise
12,500 cfs at Lowell = 4' at Paradise
8,750 cfs at Lowell = 3' at Paradise
7,500 cfs at Lowell = 2.5' at Paradise
5,000 cfs at Lowell = 2' at Paradise
3,000 cfs at Lowell = 1.5' at Paradise
1,600 cfs at Lowell= 1.0' at Paradise
900 cfs at Lowell = 0.5' at Paradise

We'll see how it all works out on the 6th, I don't even trust the newest forecast, so I might still be out of the money, but I'm feeling pretty good about my guesstimate for now. And don't even start me on this whole "feet" thing.